Arctic Blast and Gulf Moisture Set Stage for Massive U.S. Winter Storm, Threatening Ice, Snow and Power Outages

An Arctic blast diving out of Canada is set to collide with moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean this weekend, spawning a sprawling winter storm that could blanket a 2,000-mile swath of the United States in snow and ice and drive temperatures to dangerous lows.

A broad swath of snow and ice from Texas to the Northeast

From Friday through Sunday, forecasters say, the storm will sweep from Texas and the Southern Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas, the Ohio Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic, before curling into the Northeast. Heavy snow, damaging ice accretion and life-threatening wind chills are all in play, with tens of millions of people likely to see some form of wintry weather.

The system is expected to be the most extensive cold-weather event of the season so far and a major test of power grids and emergency plans, especially in the South. The pattern echoes some of the same ingredients that produced the deadly Texas freeze and blackouts of February 2021, raising questions about whether upgrades since then are enough to keep the lights—and heat—on.

Why this setup can be so disruptive

A broad upper-level trough linked to a major Arctic outbreak is setting the stage, meteorologists say. An upper low dipping into the Southwest is expected to tap Gulf and Atlantic moisture and ride over a shallow dome of Arctic air at the surface. That “overrunning” setup tends to wring out long corridors of snow, sleet and freezing rain, especially where warm air aloft sits over subfreezing air near the ground.

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center has issued “key messages” for a major January winter storm, warning of widespread significant snow and ice from the Southern Rockies and Plains into the Mid-South, Appalachians and East Coast. Hazardous travel and the potential for damaging ice accumulations that could bring down trees and power lines are among the primary concerns.

Forecast models, while still differing on the exact track, agree on the broad outline.

Timeline: Friday through Sunday

Friday: Arctic front surges into Texas and Oklahoma

On Friday, an Arctic front is expected to surge through Texas and Oklahoma, dropping temperatures below freezing behind it. In North Texas, forecasters in the Fort Worth office have warned of “dangerously cold” conditions this weekend, with lows in the single digits and teens and wind chills below zero.

Rain is likely to change to freezing rain and sleet in parts of northern and central Texas, with wintry precipitation spreading into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Saturday: Storm intensifies, snow north and ice south

By Saturday, the storm is forecast to intensify and swing east. A band of heavy snow is likely from northern Texas and Arkansas into Missouri and the Ohio Valley, while a zone of sleet and freezing rain sets up farther south—from eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of Tennessee, northern Mississippi and Alabama, and northern Georgia.

The highest risk for damaging ice appears to run in a corridor from northern and eastern Texas through Arkansas and northern Louisiana, across the Mid-South and into the Carolinas. In those areas, forecasters say a quarter-inch to a half-inch of glaze is possible, with localized amounts higher if freezing rain persists.

Utility officials in the Carolinas are sounding the alarm. Keith Avery, chief executive of Newberry Electric Cooperative in South Carolina, said that if ice accumulations reach one-half to 1 inch on trees and power lines, the result could be “catastrophic”—snapping limbs, toppling poles and leaving customers without electricity for days.

Sunday: Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast come into play

By Sunday, the system is expected to push into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast. Current projections favor heavier snow for the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and inland Mid-Atlantic and New England, where some locations could see a foot or more, depending on the storm’s final track.

Areas closer to the Interstate 95 corridor from the Carolinas to the Northeast are more likely to experience a wintry mix or changing precipitation types as slightly warmer air noses in from the Atlantic.

Dangerous cold lingers behind the storm

At the same time, Arctic air will be entrenched behind the storm. The Weather Service expects subfreezing temperatures to spread across much of the central and eastern United States through the weekend and into early next week.

In the Northern Plains, wind chills could fall well below zero, with bitter cold extending into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and even parts of the Deep South. One Weather Service meteorologist, Bryan Jackson, has described the incoming cold as “extreme, even for this being the peak of winter.”

Meteorologists on the Washington Post weather desk estimate that at the storm’s peak, roughly 55% of the U.S. population in the contiguous states could be experiencing snow, sleet or freezing rain at the same time—an overlap that could complicate mutual-aid efforts, as utilities and highway departments typically send crews across state lines to help in major storms.

Power grids under scrutiny—especially in Texas

The power grid in Texas and across the South will be under particular scrutiny.

During Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, a prolonged Arctic outbreak and repeated rounds of freezing precipitation caused widespread equipment failures and fuel supply problems in Texas. The state’s primary grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), ordered massive rolling outages to prevent a total collapse, leaving more than 4.5 million customers without power at the peak. State officials later estimated economic losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and public health researchers tied hundreds of deaths to the storm and power failures.

Since then, Texas lawmakers have passed new winterization requirements for generators, and ERCOT points to roughly 11 gigawatts of added capacity—much of it from solar farms and battery storage—as evidence that the grid is better prepared. In a recent winter outlook, ERCOT said the probability of rotating outages under typical cold conditions was about 1% to 2%, down from 7% the previous winter.

But the same analysis acknowledged that under an extreme scenario comparable to 2021—with very low temperatures, unusually high demand and multiple generation outages—the risk of forced outages would jump sharply. In that case, ERCOT projected that electricity demand could spike above 97,000 megawatts, far exceeding the current record load.

Independent energy experts say rapid growth in electricity demand from new data centers, industrial facilities and cryptocurrency mining has outpaced some grid upgrades. They argue that while the system is more robust than in 2021, it remains vulnerable to rare but severe cold snaps, especially if paired with heavy icing on transmission and distribution lines.

The South’s ice-storm risk—and public health dangers

Elsewhere in the South and East, utilities are bracing for a different kind of test. The Carolinas and parts of the Mid-South have a long history of destructive ice storms. In December 2002, an ice storm in North Carolina coated parts of the state with up to an inch of ice, knocking out power to about 1.8 million customers. Some outages lasted 10 days. Officials later documented 24 storm-related deaths, including a cluster of carbon monoxide poisonings linked to generators and charcoal grills used indoors.

Public health officials say those patterns are likely to repeat unless residents take precautions. Prolonged power failures during very cold weather are especially dangerous for people without alternative heat sources, older adults, people experiencing homelessness and rural residents who may be the last to see service restored.

Travel and commerce disruptions likely

Beyond the power grid, the approaching storm threatens widespread disruption to travel and commerce. Major interstate routes including I-20, I-30, I-35, I-40, I-70, I-81 and long stretches of I-95 lie within or near forecast zones of heavy snow and ice.

Even with pre-treatment, freezing rain can quickly turn highways into sheets of glare ice, forcing closures. Airlines are monitoring the situation, with potential impacts to hubs in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Washington, Philadelphia, New York and Boston if conditions deteriorate as forecast.

Forecasters caution that the exact placement of the heaviest snow and most damaging ice will depend on the storm’s final path and small temperature differences just above and below freezing. A shift of 50 to 100 miles north or south could mean the difference between a cold rain, crippling ice or a foot of snow for any given city.

What officials are urging now

Even with uncertainty in the storm’s final track, officials across the threatened region are urging residents to prepare now:

• Stock food, water and medications
• Charge devices and backup batteries
• Identify safe alternate heat sources
• Check on neighbors
• Avoid nonessential travel once conditions deteriorate

The storm’s full impact will not be clear until after it passes. But as Arctic air pours south and moisture gathers over the Gulf, the coming days are likely to show how well the nation’s grids, roads and safety nets have been strengthened against a type of winter threat that, while familiar, remains among the most disruptive and dangerous in the country.