Ballotpedia: 2026 State Legislative Elections Among Most Competitive Since 2010

Ballotpedia says the 2026 state legislative elections are the third most competitive cycle since 2010 under its annual index, a data point that points to more two-party contests than usual across thousands of races while still leaving a large share of seats uncontested.

The election information site’s 16th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report, released in early October and summarized again Monday, covers 6,137 state legislative seats on the ballot Nov. 3 across 46 states. Ballotpedia’s 2026 nationwide competitiveness index is 35.4.

That ranking is Ballotpedia’s index-based assessment of the structure of this year’s races, not a forecast of which party will win more seats or whether legislative chambers will change hands. Ballotpedia calculates the index by averaging three measures: the share of open seats, the share of incumbents facing contested primaries, and the share of seats with both major parties on the general-election ballot. The index does not directly measure how close races are likely to be, how much money is being spent, or the odds of a chamber flip.

On those three measures, Ballotpedia found that 4,052 seats, or 66% of those up for election, will have both major parties on the general-election ballot. It said 1,156 incumbents faced contested primaries, equal to 22.8% of incumbents who filed for reelection. And it counted 1,064 open seats, or 17.3% of all seats up for election.

The two-party general-election figure stands out. Ballotpedia said the 66% share of seats contested by both major parties is just below the record 66.3% it recorded in 2018. Overall, the 2026 index is above Ballotpedia’s 2010-2024 average of 34.0, and only 2022 and 2018 ranked higher in its series, at 36.6 and 36.1, respectively.

Compared with 2022, Ballotpedia said 2026 has fewer open seats, 17.3% versus 23.8%, and fewer incumbents facing contested primaries, 22.8% versus 26.8%. But it also has more seats with both major parties on the ballot, 66% versus 59.2%, a shift that helped keep the overall index near the top of the post-2010 range.

Even so, a substantial share of state legislative elections will not feature competition between the two major parties. Ballotpedia reported 2,085 uncontested seats, or 34% of all seats on the ballot. Because of those uncontested races, Ballotpedia said one of the two major parties is already guaranteed a simple majority in 17 chambers across 11 states.

That tension helps explain what the index captures. It measures structural conditions for competition across the map, not whether any particular race will be close. A cycle can rank highly on Ballotpedia’s index because more seats have candidates from both parties, more incumbents draw primary challengers, or more seats are open, even if many districts remain safe for one side.

State legislatures shape policy on voting rules, abortion and health care, education and taxes, and they often control redistricting after the census. That makes the breadth of competition in legislative races a national issue, even when the index is not a prediction of who will ultimately govern.