At the Reagan National Economic Forum on May 30, 2025, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning that the U.S. bond market is at risk of "cracking" under the pressure of escalating national debt. He emphasized the urgent need for the U.S. government to adopt a more sustainable fiscal path, cautioning that complacency could lead to market panic when the crisis materializes.

Dimon's remarks coincide with Congress reviewing President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," a budget proposal projected to increase the federal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion by 2034. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that federal debt will climb from 98% of GDP in 2024 to 118% by 2035, surpassing post-World War II levels. Moody’s has downgraded the nation’s credit rating from triple-A, citing concerns over the nation's fiscal trajectory.

Long-term Treasury yields have risen amid fiscal concerns, with foreign investment in U.S. debt declining, exacerbated by trade policies. Dimon also advocated for higher taxes on carried interest, aligning with President Trump's initiative to close the long-standing tax loophole benefiting private market investors. He proposed reallocating the estimated $60 billion in additional tax revenue to double income tax credits, including for individuals without children, to support communities and families.

Goldman Sachs President John Waldron echoed Dimon's concerns, highlighting the rising deficit's threat to economic growth due to increasing borrowing costs. Elon Musk, leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), criticized President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" for its massive spending and potential to undermine efforts to reduce government expenditures.

The escalating national debt and associated fiscal policies have several potential economic consequences. The government currently spends $2.4 billion on interest payments each day, a figure expected to double within the next decade as Treasuries issued during periods of near-zero interest rates mature and are replaced by bonds with higher yields.

Public concern over the national debt is growing, with 82% of voters expressing increased concern and wanting the president and Congress to spend more time addressing the issue. The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" led to internal backlash and division within the Democratic Party, which lost the vote due to the absence of three elderly Democratic representatives.

Concerns over national debt and fiscal sustainability are not new. However, the current projections indicate a more rapid increase in debt levels compared to previous periods. The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 35% when Jamie Dimon graduated high school; today, it's projected to reach 118% by 2035.

Dimon's warning serves as a critical reminder of the potential consequences of unchecked national debt. The interplay between fiscal policies, market reactions, and political decisions underscores the complexity of achieving economic stability. As the U.S. navigates these challenges, informed discourse and proactive measures will be essential to mitigate risks and promote sustainable growth.