China's Strategic Diplomacy Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Following a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, a fragile ceasefire was established on June 24, 2025. China, historically aligned with Tehran, responded with diplomatic condemnation of Israel's actions and called for de-escalation but refrained from offering material or military support. Despite its global ambitions and strong oil ties with Iran, China adopted a cautious, risk-averse approach, emphasizing non-intervention to maintain commercial stability. Chinese officials condemned Israeli aggression, advocated for dialogue, and engaged in diplomatic discussions with regional and global powers such as Russia, Oman, and Egypt. At the United Nations, China supported a ceasefire resolution opposed by the U.S. Analysts suggest that China's restrained stance highlights the gap between its great-power narrative and actual geopolitical influence in conflict zones.

China's economic interests in Iran are substantial, primarily through energy trade and infrastructure investments. China is Iran's largest oil buyer, importing around 43 million barrels monthly, which constitutes approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports and 13.6% of China’s crude imports. Despite a 25-year cooperation pact signed in 2021, implementation has been limited. Chinese investments in Iran since 2007 total just under $5 billion, lagging behind investments in other regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In response to the conflict, China engaged in diplomatic discussions with regional and global powers, including Russia, Oman, and Egypt, advocating for dialogue and a peaceful resolution. At the United Nations, China supported a ceasefire resolution opposed by the United States, highlighting its commitment to diplomatic solutions over military interventions.

The conflict and subsequent ceasefire have significant social and economic implications. The mass displacement of civilians in Tehran has strained local resources and infrastructure. Economically, the instability has affected global oil markets, with fluctuations in oil prices reflecting concerns over supply disruptions. China's restrained response underscores its prioritization of economic stability and non-interventionist policies in the region.

Analysts suggest that China's cautious stance during the Israel-Iran conflict highlights the gap between its great-power narrative and actual geopolitical influence in conflict zones. While China has expanded its economic footprint in the Middle East, its reluctance to engage militarily or take a definitive stance in regional conflicts indicates a preference for economic diplomacy over direct intervention.

China's approach to the Israel-Iran conflict reflects its broader strategy of balancing economic interests with geopolitical stability. By emphasizing diplomatic engagement and non-intervention, China aims to maintain its economic partnerships while avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts. This cautious diplomacy underscores the complexities of China's role in the Middle East and its efforts to navigate the region's volatile dynamics.