Early Onset of 2025 Monsoon in India Boosts Agricultural Prospects

India's southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, 2025, marking its earliest onset since 2009 and eight days ahead of the typical June 1 start. This early arrival is expected to significantly impact the nation's agriculture and economy.

The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall, crucial for agriculture, especially as nearly half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation. The early onset is anticipated to facilitate timely sowing of key summer crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane, potentially boosting yields and stabilizing food prices. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-average rainfall for the second consecutive year, predicting 106% of the long-term average.

The southwest monsoon is vital for India's $4 trillion economy, providing essential rainfall for agriculture and replenishing water resources. In 2024, the monsoon arrived on May 30 with the highest seasonal rainfall since 2020.

The early monsoon allows farmers to begin sowing summer crops earlier, potentially leading to higher yields. Favorable pre-monsoon rainfall and early arrival are expected to benefit farmers by enabling early sowing and potentially increasing crop yields, particularly in southern and central states.

Above-average rainfall can boost agricultural output, stabilize food prices, and support economic growth. Good rainfall helps keep food prices in check, curbs inflation, and enables India—the world’s largest exporter of rice—to ship more of the staple.

"Abundant soil moisture and early sowing could potentially boost crop yields," said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India.

"The monsoon is expected to total 106% of the long-term average this year," stated M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Early monsoon rains reduce high summer temperatures, decreasing power consumption as demand for air-conditioning and irrigation drops. They also replenish crucial reservoirs, easing water supply concerns in typically dry regions.

The early arrival and above-average forecast of the 2025 monsoon season present significant opportunities for India's agriculture and economy. Timely and well-distributed rainfall is essential for maximizing these benefits, ensuring food security, and sustaining economic growth.