WMO Forecasts Record Global Temperatures Through 2029, Highlights Arctic Warming

In May 2025, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report forecasting that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years. The report highlights a significant acceleration in Arctic warming, with temperatures in the region projected to rise more than three times the global average. This trend poses substantial implications for global climate patterns, ecosystems, and human societies.

The WMO's projections indicate an 80% likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. Additionally, there is an 86% chance that at least one year in this period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The five-year average warming for 2025-2029 is projected to have a 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C.

The report forecasts that Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) will be more than three and a half times the global average, with temperatures expected to be 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 average. This accelerated warming is primarily due to feedback mechanisms such as the albedo effect, where melting ice exposes darker surfaces that absorb more solar energy.

Predicted changes include wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while regions like the Amazon may experience drier-than-average conditions. The anticipated rise in global temperatures is expected to intensify extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and storms. Accelerated Arctic warming contributes to the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to rising sea levels. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can disrupt ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and leading to the loss of habitats for various species.

The WMO's May 2025 report serves as a critical reminder of the accelerating pace of climate change and the pressing need for comprehensive global action. The projected trends underscore the importance of adhering to international agreements and implementing robust strategies to mitigate and adapt to the evolving climate landscape.