US Government Shutdown Threatens Essential Economic Data Releases

As the United States approaches a potential government shutdown, the Department of Labor has announced plans to suspend the release of critical economic data, including the September employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This suspension could leave policymakers, investors, and businesses without essential information needed for informed decision-making.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a division of the Department of Labor, is responsible for collecting and disseminating vital economic data, including employment statistics and inflation rates. These reports are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and guiding policy decisions. In the event of a government shutdown, the BLS will halt data collection and dissemination, suspending the September employment report and the CPI. However, the BLS plans to release the August Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report. The status of the weekly jobless claims report remains uncertain due to its reliance on both state and federal coordination.

The Commerce Department, which produces data including gross domestic product (GDP) and retail sales, has not yet disclosed its shutdown procedures. This raises concerns about potential delays in other major data releases. A prolonged shutdown could further degrade data quality, already strained by years of underfunding, staff reductions, and a hiring freeze. Alarm over data reliability is growing amid falling survey response rates and reduced CPI data collection.

The potential delay in releasing the CPI could disrupt the announcement of Social Security's cost-of-living adjustments, affecting millions of beneficiaries. Investors may face increased uncertainty, leading to potential volatility in financial markets. For instance, on September 29, 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose as investors looked past hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and focused on the possible U.S. government shutdown.

During previous government shutdowns, the impact on economic data releases varied. For example, during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the BLS continued publishing data. However, the current contingency plans indicate a complete cessation of operations at the BLS in the event of a shutdown, marking a significant departure from past practices.

The potential suspension of key economic data releases during a government shutdown underscores the critical role of timely information in economic planning and decision-making. Stakeholders must consider alternative data sources and strategies to navigate the uncertainties posed by such disruptions.