Japan's Political Landscape Shifts as Komeito Departs Ruling Coalition

On October 10, 2025, Japan's political landscape experienced a significant shift as the Komeito party announced its departure from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), ending a 26-year partnership. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito cited unresolved issues regarding political funding and ideological differences as primary reasons for the split.

The alliance between the LDP and Komeito, established in 1999, has been a cornerstone of Japan's political stability. Komeito, originally the political wing of the Soka Gakkai Buddhist movement, has traditionally emphasized pacifism and anti-corruption. However, recent developments have strained this relationship.

Tensions escalated following the election of Sanae Takaichi as LDP president on October 4, 2025. Takaichi's conservative views, including her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and stances on foreign nationals, raised concerns within Komeito. The decisive factor for Komeito's withdrawal was the LDP's inadequate response to political funding scandals, particularly the appointment of Koichi Hagiuda, implicated in a funding scandal, to a senior party position.

Komeito's departure poses a significant challenge to Takaichi's bid to become Japan's first female prime minister. Without Komeito's support, the LDP lacks a majority in both houses of parliament, complicating the process of forming a stable government. Potential partners, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai, have expressed reluctance to join the LDP, citing reputational risks and policy differences.

The coalition's collapse follows a series of electoral setbacks for the LDP. In October 2024, the LDP lost its majority in the lower house, and in July 2025, it suffered losses in the upper house elections. These setbacks have been attributed to public dissatisfaction over rising inflation, political scandals, and concerns about U.S. tariffs. The emergence of populist and far-right parties, such as Sanseito, advocating nationalist policies, has further fragmented the political landscape.

The current political turmoil presents an opportunity for opposition parties to form new coalitions. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), and Nippon Ishin no Kai collectively hold enough seats to challenge the LDP's dominance. However, ideological differences among these parties pose challenges to forming a unified front. Historical precedents, such as the short-lived opposition coalition in 1993, highlight the difficulties in maintaining such alliances.

The political instability resulting from the coalition's collapse has broader societal implications. Public trust in political institutions may erode further, especially in light of ongoing corruption scandals. Economically, the uncertainty could impact investor confidence and Japan's ability to negotiate trade agreements, particularly with the United States, which has been critical of Japan's trade policies.

This is not the first time Japan has experienced a coalition collapse. In 1993, a coalition of opposition parties briefly ousted the LDP, but the alliance lasted only a year before the LDP returned to power. The current situation differs in the context of recent electoral losses and the rise of new political movements, adding complexity to the formation of a stable government.

In conclusion, the dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition marks a pivotal moment in Japanese politics, with far-reaching implications for governance, economic stability, and international relations.