U.S. Private Sector Faces Unexpected Job Losses in November 2025

In November 2025, the U.S. private sector experienced an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs, according to the ADP National Employment Report released on December 3. This downturn contrasts sharply with the revised increase of 47,000 jobs in October and defies economists' expectations of a 10,000 job gain.

The job losses were broad-based, with significant reductions in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors. Small businesses led the pullback, reflecting cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Despite the decline in employment, annual pay increased by 4.4% year-over-year, suggesting that while job numbers decreased, wages for existing positions saw growth.

The ADP National Employment Report, developed in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, serves as an independent measure of the labor market. It utilizes anonymized payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees to provide insights into employment trends.

It's important to note that the ADP report often diverges from the U.S. Labor Department's official data. The official November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), delayed due to a prolonged government shutdown, is scheduled for release on December 16, 2025. This report will include nonfarm payrolls for October but not the unemployment rate, as the shutdown prevented necessary data collection.

The recent 43-day government shutdown has had significant impacts on economic data collection and reporting. The BLS announced the cancellation of the October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to the shutdown, which disrupted data collection efforts. Similarly, the October employment report has been canceled, though October nonfarm payrolls will be released alongside November's employment data on December 16.

Global risk assets showed signs of recovery midweek following a sharp selloff at the start of December, although bond markets continued to suffer losses. The U.S. dollar also weakened due to increasing focus on the Federal Reserve as investors anticipate a potential rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Stock markets rebounded modestly, and Bitcoin extended gains but remained below its October high.

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report, published on November 26, 2025, indicates that overall economic activity remained mostly unchanged across the country in recent weeks. However, employment weakened in roughly half of the Fed's 12 districts, with employers increasingly resorting to hiring freezes and attrition rather than layoffs. Consumer spending declined, particularly among low-income households impacted by the recent government shutdown.

The unexpected decline in U.S. private sector employment in November 2025 highlights the fragility of the labor market amid economic uncertainties. As the nation awaits the delayed official employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, policymakers and business leaders must navigate the complex landscape shaped by recent disruptions and ongoing challenges.