Champions League Matchday 7 turns new 36-team format into a reckoning night

Floodlights will snap on from the Arctic Circle to the Mediterranean on Jan. 20–21 as the UEFA Champions League’s new 36-team format reaches the point where the standings finally start to bite.

Two days of fixtures across Europe — from Bodø/Glimt hosting Manchester City in northern Norway to Tottenham Hotspur facing Borussia Dortmund in London and Inter Milan welcoming Arsenal at San Siro — form Matchday 7 of the league phase, the penultimate round before the knockout field is set.

Under the revised Swiss-style system, this week’s results will go a long way toward deciding which clubs go straight to the round of 16, who must navigate an extra play-off in February and who are pushed out of Europe altogether.

How the new format works — and why Matchday 7 matters

The Champions League abandoned its traditional eight-group format in 2024 and now runs a single league table of 36 clubs who each play eight opponents — four home, four away.

After Matchday 8 on Jan. 28:

• The top eight advance directly to the round of 16.
• Teams from ninth to 24th enter two-legged knockout play-offs.
• Teams from 25th to 36th are eliminated, with no Europa League safety net.

With six rounds completed, the table is compressed at both ends. Arsenal lead the standings on 18 points after winning all six games. Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Atalanta, Liverpool, Inter Milan, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid are all within six points of each other near the top.

At the other end, recent European regulars such as Benfica, Ajax and Union Saint-Gilloise are currently in the 25th-to-36th band that would end their continental season at the league phase.

In this context, Matchday 7 functions as a de facto judgment night.

Headliners: Inter vs. Arsenal, Spurs vs. Dortmund

One of the headline games comes in Milan, where Inter host leaders Arsenal on Jan. 20. Mikel Arteta’s side have made the most emphatic start to the new format: six wins from six, a +16 goal difference and statements at home against Atlético Madrid and Bayern.

A positive result in Italy would all but confirm Arsenal among the top eight, and they could become the first club to win their first seven games in the revamped league phase. Inter, who sit on 12 points with only one defeat so far, are seeking to protect their own path to automatic qualification.

North London will stage another pivotal tie the same night when Tottenham meet Borussia Dortmund. Both are level on 11 points and separated only by goals scored. The winner will move toward the top-eight positions; the loser will likely drop into the crowded field of clubs needing to survive a two-legged play-off in February.

It is a fixture heavy with recent history. Dortmund dominated an Europa League round-of-16 tie in 2016, but Spurs have since won all four Champions League meetings between the sides, including a 3-0 home victory in 2019 that set up their run to the final.

Analytical models and betting markets suggest little to separate them this time. An Opta-powered projection published ahead of the match put Tottenham’s win probability just under 40%, Dortmund close behind and the rest on a draw, underlining how finely balanced the stakes are in a system that groups elite clubs in the middle of a single table.

Top-eight chase: PSG, Bayern, Madrid and Liverpool in focus

Elsewhere in the top-eight race, PSG travel to Lisbon for a meeting with Sporting CP, while Bayern host Union Saint-Gilloise in Munich on Jan. 21.

PSG have taken 13 points from six games and have been among the most prolific attacking sides in the competition, while Sporting sit on 10 points in mid-table. The Portuguese champions are unbeaten at home in Europe this season and are trying to solidify a place inside the top 16; defeat could leave them looking nervously over their shoulders at the cut line around 24th place.

Bayern, on 15 points, can move to the brink of securing an automatic last-16 place with victory over Union SG. The Belgian club, who have supplied one of European football’s most romantic stories in recent seasons, are 27th with six points and need an upset in Munich to retain realistic hopes of climbing into the top 24.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, host Monaco at the Santiago Bernabéu. Madrid have 12 points and sit just inside the current top-eight positions on goal difference. Monaco, on nine points and a negative goal difference, are one of several mid-tier clubs from major leagues trapped in the middle of the table. An away win would transform their prospects, while defeat could leave them scrapping simply to stay in the competition.

Liverpool find themselves in a similar position. Jürgen Klopp’s side are ninth on 12 points after a crucial away win against Inter on Matchday 6 and travel to Marseille on Jan. 21. The Vélodrome, one of the most intense atmospheres in Europe, will host a Marseille team on nine points and chasing at least a play-off berth.

The survival line: a brutal cut and no parachute

Below the elite and the mid-table contenders, there is a separate battle for survival.

Copenhagen, Napoli and Qarabag are among the clubs sitting on or just above the 24th-place line, where the league phase now imposes its most brutal cut. Copenhagen’s home match against Napoli on Jan. 20, and Qarabag’s game with Eintracht Frankfurt the following day, carry consequences for access not only to the Champions League knockouts but to European competition of any kind.

For the clubs near the bottom of the standings, Matchday 7 offers slim margins and long odds.

Norway’s Bodø/Glimt sit 32nd on three points but have already drawn at home against both Tottenham and Dortmund. They now welcome defending champions Manchester City to Aspmyra Stadion, a compact ground above the Arctic Circle with an artificial surface and expected midwinter conditions.

City are fourth in the table on 13 points but have been managing a run of injuries in defense and a dip in domestic league form. The trip to Norway also comes amid broader concerns in the game about fixture congestion and player fatigue.

Manchester City midfielder Rodri said in 2024 that players were “really close to the limit” and warned that the accumulation of club, international and new tournament commitments risked pushing them toward industrial action. “It’s too many games,” he told reporters when asked about the expanded Champions League and a new 32-team FIFA Club World Cup. “In one season you can play 80, 85 games.”

His manager, Pep Guardiola, has repeatedly voiced similar concerns, arguing that governing bodies continue to add competitions despite feedback from coaches and players. In one interview, Guardiola compared the demands to asking actors to perform “three shows a day” and said organizers “listen, but at the end they add more games.”

The debate over the Swiss model

UEFA has defended the Champions League reforms as a way to increase sporting opportunity and financial stability across the continent. In its explainer on the new format, the organization said the shift to a 36-team league phase was intended to give clubs “more matches against more opponents,” boost overall revenues and distribute more solidarity payments to teams not playing in European competitions.

The early rounds of the new Swiss model have delivered more high-profile fixtures than the old group stage, including Arsenal hosting Bayern and PSG visiting other heavyweights before Christmas. They have also produced an expanded geographic map, taking Europe’s most famous clubs to cities such as Bodø in Norway and Almaty in Kazakhstan.

At the same time, critics in media and within the game say the structure favors established clubs from the top five leagues. Strong performances in domestic competitions still determine access, but once inside the 36-team field, deep squads with higher budgets have more room for error. Finishing as low as 20th can still lead to the last 16, while smaller clubs must often produce multiple upsets simply to reach 24th.

For supporters, the new structure brings more European nights in midwinter but also more travel demands. English fans heading to the Arctic Circle, German fans flying to Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, and local supporters fitting high-stakes matches into already packed domestic schedules are all part of the reshaped calendar.

What to watch by Wednesday night

By late on Jan. 21, the table will have shifted again. Some clubs are likely to have secured their passage directly to the round of 16. Others will know they are heading for a February play-off, and several will be staring at the prospect of elimination with only one league-phase match left to play.

Matchday 7 will not decide the Champions League title. It will, however, reveal who has navigated the complex mathematics of the new format most effectively — and who must now take the longest route, or no route at all, to the latter stages of Europe’s most lucrative club competition.