Bank of Canada study: Canadian ports' global connectivity fell sharply from 2016 to 2023

Canadian ports became materially less central to global shipping networks between 2016 and 2023, according to new Bank of Canada staff research, a shift that coincided with a 28% drop in the total deadweight tonnage moving through Canadian ports. In a May 2026 Sparks at Bank article titled “Canada’s shifting position in global maritime trade,” the authors said the total deadweight tonnage, or DWT, of vessels arriving at or departing from Canadian ports fell from 167 million metric tons in 2016 to 119 million metric tons in 2023.

That matters because Canada is deeply exposed to global trade: exports of goods and services were about one-third of gross domestic product in 2023, according to World Bank data. The Bank researchers said a weaker position in maritime networks could leave Canadian businesses more vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions and higher transportation costs if they have fewer direct shipping links and greater reliance on foreign hubs.

The research article, credited to Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Patrick McKelvey, Tessa Peer, Walter Steingress and Ben Tomlin, used satellite Automatic Identification System, or AIS, vessel-tracking data from exactEarth Ltd. for 2016 and 2023. “We then use these data to calculate the degree centrality, an indicator of the number of unique destinations directly connected to a port,” the authors wrote. They weighted those routes by the number of vessel trips and normalized the results to show each port’s connectivity as a share of overall maritime trade.

By that measure, the paper said, degree centrality “declined considerably” for each of Canada’s five largest ports over the period. The published dataset shows Vancouver’s score falling to 0.16 in 2023 from 0.75 in 2016. Halifax dropped to 0.14 from 0.56, while Montréal fell to 0.15 from 0.48.

The broader picture was also weaker. Canada’s global ranking by total DWT moving through its ports fell to 23rd in 2023 from sixth in 2016. Over the same period, the United States slipped only slightly, to third from second. The Bank article also said Canada lost 11 trading partners that accounted for just over 6 million metric tons of capacity, while gaining 18 new partners contributing about 3 million metric tons, leaving a net loss in partner-capacity.

The authors tied part of that decline in relative connectivity to structural changes in global shipping. Carriers have shifted toward larger ships, more concentrated routes and more transshipment through major hubs before cargo reaches smaller markets. That trend has favored ports able to handle the biggest vessels and extensive transfer operations. The Bank note said the largest ships Canadian ports can accommodate carry “15,000 containers at most,” helping explain why more cargo is routed through larger foreign hubs, including the U.S. West Coast, before moving on to Canada.

That finding fits a broader global reordering documented by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its Review of Maritime Transport 2024. In 2016, three U.S. ports were among the world’s 10 most-connected ports. By 2023, none were. Eight of the top 10 most-connected ports were in East Asia in 2023, up from six in 2016, according to the Bank research.

The authors were explicit about the limits of the data. DWT measures a ship’s potential carrying capacity, not the actual amount or value of cargo moved, so the 28% decline should not be read as a 28% drop in Canada’s trade volumes. The article is also a staff research note, not a monetary policy statement from the Bank of Canada’s governing council, and it carries a disclaimer that the views are solely those of the authors.