USDA trims 2026/27 U.S. corn forecast, raises farm price outlook for corn and soybeans

The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for the 2026/27 U.S. corn crop in its September supply-and-demand report, reduced projected corn ending stocks and raised its farm price outlook for both corn and soybeans, the clearest signal in the report that domestic feed-grain supplies are tightening.

The revisions came in USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, the benchmark report traders, agribusinesses and food companies use to gauge crop supplies, trade flows and price direction. The report, labeled “WASDE - 675 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board September 11, 2026,” showed a more constrained outlook for U.S. corn and, to a lesser extent, soybeans, even as global wheat supplies grew.

For U.S. corn, USDA pegged 2026/27 production at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from last month. The agency lowered its yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels, and made a fractional cut to harvested area, now seen at 88.5 million acres.

USDA also lowered projected total corn use to 16.2 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels. But the cut to supply was larger than the cut to demand, leaving ending stocks at 1.6 billion bushels, down 86 million bushels from the prior forecast. The season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel.

That combination of lower production, lower stocks and a higher price outlook is likely to matter most for grain markets, livestock feed costs and ethanol economics. Globally, the tone was similar for feed grains. USDA forecast 2026/27 world coarse grain production at 1.588 billion metric tons, down 5.1 million tons from last month, and lowered world corn ending stocks by 2.6 million tons to 272.1 million tons.

Soybeans tightened more modestly. USDA raised its 2026/27 U.S. soybean production forecast by 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels, but that bigger crop was more than offset by stronger demand expectations. Exports were projected at 1.69 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels, and ending stocks were trimmed by 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels.

The agency also raised its season-average soybean farm price by 60 cents to $12.00 per bushel. Taken together, the soybean changes pointed to a somewhat firmer balance sheet, though not as sharply as in corn.

Wheat moved in the opposite direction globally. USDA raised its 2026/27 global wheat supply forecast to 1,103.0 million tons, up 3.5 million tons from the previous month, and increased ending stocks by 3.0 million tons to 276.3 million tons.

The larger wheat outlook reflected bigger crops in several exporting countries. USDA raised Australia’s wheat production by 3.0 million tons to 31.0 million, Canada’s by 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million and Ukraine’s by 0.6 million tons to 26.0 million. It cut Kazakhstan by 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million.

At the same time, USDA said weaker August shipments from Russia and Ukraine led it to reduce world wheat trade estimates and lower exports for both countries, adding that “war in the Black Sea region hampers logistics.” USDA also raised the U.S. season-average wheat farm price by 20 cents to $6.40 per bushel.

The broad picture from September’s WASDE was a split one: tighter U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets on one side, and a looser global wheat outlook on the other.