The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a report indicating an 80% probability that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at least once between 2025 and 2029. This projection underscores the accelerating pace of climate change and its potential impacts on global ecosystems and human societies.

According to the WMO, annual global temperatures during this period are expected to range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. The report also highlights a 1% chance that temperatures could surpass the 2°C threshold in a single year before the decade's end. These projections are based on data from over 200 climate models and reflect the influence of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations and potential El Niño events.

The Arctic region is projected to warm at more than three times the global average, with temperatures expected to rise 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 average over the next five winters. This accelerated warming is anticipated to hasten ice melt and contribute significantly to sea-level rise.

The WMO warns that such temperature increases could lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and intensified hurricanes. These events pose significant risks to human health, agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The WMO's projections indicate that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold are increasingly likely, underscoring the urgency for nations to enhance their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Prof. Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General, stated, "A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management, and the environment. We need to be prepared."

Dr. Leon Hermanson, Met Office Expert Scientist, added, "Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to."

The WMO's findings are part of a continuing trend of rising global temperatures. The past ten years (2015-2024) have been the warmest on record. In 2024, the global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average, marking the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold.

The projected temperature increases and associated extreme weather events have profound implications for societies worldwide. Elevated temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses and deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can disrupt crop yields, leading to food insecurity and economic losses for farmers. Altered rainfall patterns and increased evaporation rates may exacerbate water scarcity, affecting both drinking water supplies and agricultural irrigation. Extreme weather events can damage infrastructure, leading to costly repairs and disruptions in services. Rising sea levels and extreme weather can force communities to relocate, leading to social and economic challenges.

The WMO's report serves as a clarion call for immediate and sustained global action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. The increasing likelihood of surpassing critical temperature thresholds highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience to climate-related risks.