Myanmar Junta Announces 2025-2026 Elections Amidst Skepticism and Conflict

Myanmar's military leadership, under Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has announced plans to hold general elections between December 2025 and January 2026. This decision follows the military's seizure of power in February 2021, which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The announcement has been met with widespread skepticism both domestically and internationally, given the current political climate and ongoing conflicts within the country.

In March 2025, during a state visit to Belarus, Min Aung Hlaing stated that the elections would be conducted in the last two weeks of December or the first two weeks of January. To oversee the electoral process, the military has formed an 11-member commission led by Min Aung Hlaing himself. Despite the establishment of a nominally civilian-led interim administration, real authority remains with the military.

The junta has implemented measures that effectively exclude major opposition parties from participating in the upcoming elections. In February 2023, the National League for Democracy (NLD) announced it would not re-register under a new electoral law enacted by the junta, which imposed stringent requirements on political parties. Consequently, the Union Election Commission dissolved the NLD and 39 other parties in March 2023. Similarly, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), another significant opposition party, chose not to participate under the new regulations.

The international community has largely condemned the junta's plans for elections. The United Nations and various human rights organizations have labeled the proposed elections as a facade intended to legitimize continued military rule. UN envoy Julie Bishop warned that Myanmar faces a "path to self-destruction" if violence continues and expressed concern that the planned elections could deepen instability without reforms and an end to violence.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has also expressed concerns. Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa conveyed that ASEAN desires a comprehensive and inclusive election involving all stakeholders. However, the junta's actions, including the exclusion of opposition groups, have led to skepticism about the credibility of the upcoming elections.

The security situation in Myanmar remains precarious. The military controls less than half of the country's 330 townships, and ongoing conflicts with various ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy militias pose significant challenges to conducting free and fair elections. In August 2025, Min Aung Hlaing called for heightened security measures to protect political candidates and voters, citing increasing attacks on civil servants and ongoing conflict. These measures include intensified military operations and the formation of "people's security" groups.

In an effort to rebuild ties with the United States, Myanmar's Ministry of Information signed a $3 million annual lobbying deal with U.S.-based DCI Group on July 31, 2025. The agreement aims to enhance relations related to trade, natural resources, and humanitarian aid. This move comes despite existing U.S. sanctions on Myanmar's military leadership following the 2021 coup.

The planned elections have profound implications for Myanmar's society. The exclusion of major opposition parties and the military's control over the electoral process raise concerns about the legitimacy of the elections and the potential for further civil unrest. The ongoing detention of political leaders, suppression of political freedoms, and reports of human rights abuses by security forces contribute to a climate of fear and uncertainty among the populace.

The planned elections are fraught with challenges, including international condemnation, internal conflicts, and questions about their legitimacy. The outcome of these elections will significantly impact Myanmar's political future and its relations with the global community.