Bigger tax refunds are coming this spring — and the White House wants you to notice

When Alicia Gomez opened her tax software on Monday, the number that popped up on her screen stopped her cold. The 35-year-old medical assistant from Phoenix was expecting a refund similar to last year’s. Instead, the estimate was more than $4,200 — roughly $1,200 higher than the check she got back from the government in 2025.

“Honestly, I thought it was a mistake,” she said. “My paycheck hasn’t felt any different all year.”

Her surprise is exactly what the White House was counting on.

A record refund season — by design

On Jan. 26, the same day the Internal Revenue Service began accepting 2025 tax-year returns, President Donald Trump’s administration declared that Americans were entering “the largest tax refund season in U.S. history,” crediting the surge to his signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a package of changes branded as the Working Families Tax Cuts.

The IRS expects to process about 164 million individual returns this filing season. Independent analysts and administration officials broadly agree that, for millions of those filers, refunds will be noticeably larger than usual. Forecasts from nonpartisan tax experts and Treasury officials point to average refunds of a little more than $4,000, roughly $1,000 higher per filer than last year.

Collectively, the sums are even more striking. During last year’s filing season, the IRS distributed about $329 billion in individual income tax refunds. House Ways and Means Committee Republicans now project a record $370 billion in refunds this year, about a 26% increase, including roughly $91 billion they attribute directly to the Working Families Tax Cuts. A separate, more aggressive forecast cited by Treasury officials and published in conservative media pegs total refunds as high as $429 billion, about 30% above last year.

However the final tally lands, the direction is clear: more money is headed back to households this spring than in any prior filing season.

What changed in the tax law

The surge is not an accident. It stems from the way last year’s tax overhaul was written — and from a low-profile decision about how quickly to adjust paychecks once that law took effect.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, H.R. 1 of the 119th Congress, was introduced in May 2025 and signed by Trump on July 4 in a high-profile ceremony at the White House. The sweeping law, passed on near party-line votes in both chambers, extended and expanded many of the individual tax cuts first enacted in 2017 while pairing them with cuts to federal safety-net programs and new spending on border security.

Republican leaders framed the tax portion as the Working Families Tax Cuts, promising to reduce taxes on wages and retirement benefits. Supporters repeatedly boiled the message down to a slogan: “no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.”

“The American people are going to see the biggest tax refund season ever because we delivered real relief for working families,” Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, the Republican chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a statement announcing the start of filing season. “Democrats voted for the largest tax hike in history; we did the opposite.”

The law made a series of changes to individual taxes that apply retroactively to income earned in 2025. Among the most significant:

• A larger standard deduction, on top of making the doubled standard deduction from 2017 permanent.
• A modest increase in the Child Tax Credit, from $2,000 to $2,200 per child, indexed to inflation.
• New deductions for “qualified overtime” pay and for tips, subject to income limits and caps, meant to fulfill the promise of “no tax on tips and overtime” for many hourly workers.
• A temporary increase in the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting homeowners in high-tax states.
• A new “senior bonus” deduction of up to $6,000, structured so that most middle-income retirees can offset income tax on Social Security benefits.

Why refunds are bigger — even if paychecks didn’t change

In past overhauls, the IRS has typically updated withholding tables so that workers see changes flow into their paychecks as soon as practical. This time, tax officials did not fully adjust those tables in the second half of 2025, citing timing and the complexity of the new law.

That decision meant that, throughout 2025, many employees continued to have income tax withheld from their pay as if the law had not changed — even as their ultimate 2025 tax liability fell because of the new deductions and credits. The difference between what they paid in and what they owe will now arrive as a lump-sum refund.

“Because of the way the law was implemented, a large share of the tax relief for 2025 is being delivered as refunds rather than as higher take-home pay,” said one analyst at a Washington think tank that has modeled the law’s effects. “That produces an unusually big jump in refunds this year that is unlikely to repeat at the same scale.”

Many of the biggest dollar increases are expected to go to middle- and upper-middle-income households — roughly those between about $60,000 and $400,000 in annual income — according to private sector estimates shared with investors and later cited by financial publications. Families with children are also poised to gain, both from the higher child credit and from expanded credits for child and dependent care.

Seniors with modest retirement income may see their tax bills shrink as well. The Treasury Department has promoted the senior bonus deduction with the claim that about 88% of Social Security recipients will no longer owe income tax on their benefits.

At the other end of the income scale, some of the poorest families are likely to see smaller gains. Because much of the expanded Child Tax Credit is nonrefundable, it does not fully reach households with very low earnings or no income tax liability. Analysts also note that some of those families are facing tighter eligibility and reduced funding for Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program under other provisions of the same law.

IRS strains and new friction points

The mechanics of delivering a record volume of refunds come as the IRS itself is under strain.

The agency, which marks the 40th anniversary of electronic filing this year, expects a similar number of total returns as last season. But its workforce has shrunk significantly, from about 102,000 employees to about 74,000, as a result of attrition and restructuring in recent years.

In an annual report to Congress released this month, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins said taxpayer service was generally strong last year but warned that those who encounter problems could face “significant challenges” this season. While the IRS continues to say that most electronically filed returns with direct deposit will be processed within about 21 days, Collins cautioned that complex cases, identity theft issues and paper filings can lead to much longer waits.

Adding to the potential friction is a policy shift away from paper refund checks. Under an executive order issued last year, the IRS is moving to make direct deposit the default for almost all refunds. Only about 7% of refunds last season were still sent as physical checks, but those recipients are disproportionately unbanked, elderly or living in rural areas with limited access to financial services. Taxpayer advocates have raised concerns that those groups may struggle to navigate new online systems or to provide banking details.

Tax professionals also expect a rise in errors and disputes as filers confront unfamiliar provisions, such as the new deductions for tips and overtime. Larger-than-usual refunds could draw more attempts at fraud and more scrutiny from the IRS, particularly if patterns emerge in certain industries.

The political stakes of a spring windfall

Beyond the mechanics, the timing and visibility of the 2026 refund surge give it clear political significance.

Trump and Republican leaders are already showcasing the numbers as evidence that their economic agenda is working for “working families” ahead of the November midterm elections. Democrats and outside critics, while not contesting that many households will see bigger checks, argue that the one-time spike masks a law that delivers permanent tax benefits to higher earners and businesses while cutting back on health and nutrition programs for low-income Americans.

Nonpartisan budget analysts have estimated that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will reduce federal tax revenue by about $4.5 trillion over 10 years and add roughly $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion to the national debt, after accounting for spending cuts and new revenue sources elsewhere in the package.

For taxpayers like Gomez, those long-term numbers can feel distant. She said she plans to use her larger refund to pay down credit card debt and repair her car.

“I’m just relieved to have extra money,” she said. “But if this is a one-time thing, I don’t want to get used to it.”

Whether this spring’s surge in refunds becomes remembered as the start of a new era of tax relief or as a brief windfall engineered for a single election year may depend on what happens when paychecks, benefits and the federal balance sheet are tallied in the years ahead.