Economy
ECB Raises Key Rates by 25 Basis Points, Warns Inflation Will Stay Above Target for Years
ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, projecting inflation above 2% through 2028 while euro-area growth remains weak.
Finance
Markets, economy, and industry.
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Economy
CBO: Automatic Stabilizers Will Barely Curb U.S. Deficits Over Next Decade
CBO finds automatic stabilizers will barely reduce deficits from 2026–2036, leaving structurally large federal deficits averaging 6.1% of potential GDP.
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Economy
U.S. PCE Inflation Remains at 3.7% in July; Real Consumer Spending Barely Rose
July PCE inflation stayed at 3.7% (core 3.3%), well above the Fed's 2% goal, while real consumer spending was essentially flat.
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Economy
AAA: August 2026 Was First August With U.S. Gasoline Above $4 Every Day
AAA says August 2026 was the first August on record with U.S. national average gasoline above $4 a gallon every day, underscoring persistent summer fuel costs.
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Economy
BEA's Second Estimate: U.S. Q2 GDP 1.5%, Underlying Demand and Inflation Stronger
Second BEA estimate leaves Q2 GDP at 1.5% but shows stronger private demand, firmer inflation and a sharp jump in corporate profits.
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Economy
GAO Finds Effects of Original Opportunity Zones Largely Unknown Despite $108 Billion in Funds
A GAO report finds limited evidence on what the original Opportunity Zones achieved, even as Qualified Opportunity Funds held $108B; revisions may improve tracking.
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Economy
U.S. Consumer Inflation Rises 0.1% in July; Shelter Costs Account for Most of Gain
Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July (3.4% y/y); core CPI up 0.2%. Shelter costs accounted for roughly two‑thirds of the monthly increase as energy fell.
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Economy
RBA Holds Cash Rate at 4.35% and Warns Further Hikes Remain Possible
Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 4.35% on Aug. 11, stressing the pause is not easing and warning it may raise rates if inflation risks rise.
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Economy
July Jobs Report: U.S. Payrolls Fell 23,000 as BLS Revises Prior Months Down 103,000
BLS: nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, unemployment 4.1%. May-June payrolls were revised down 103,000, signaling softer U.S. hiring.
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Economy
BOJ minutes show 7-1 vote approved June rate rise; lone dissent flagged Middle East risks
BOJ minutes show a 7-1 vote approving the June rate rise to 1.0%, with one dissent citing Middle East risks and debate over bond-buying taper.
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Economy
BOJ Says Inflation Will Be 'Clearly Above 2%' From H2 FY2026, Signals Further Rate Hikes
BOJ says core CPI will be clearly above 2% from H2 fiscal 2026, trims near-term outlook due to temporary relief measures and signals more rate hikes.
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Economy
Bank of Japan Signals Ongoing Rate Hikes as It Sees Slower Growth in Fiscal 2026
BOJ says it will keep raising interest rates even as it expects Japan's economy to slow in fiscal 2026; inflation seen above 2% from H2 2026.
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Economy
U.S. GDP Growth Slows to 1.5% Annualized in Q2, BEA Says
BEA's advance estimate shows U.S. GDP rose 1.5% annualized in Q2 as inflation stayed high and private demand strengthened.
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Economy
Bank of Canada: Oil-driven lift to inflation seen as temporary; rate held at 2.25%
BoC says recent oil-driven inflation is temporary and kept the overnight rate at 2.25%, citing softer labour market and underlying price pressures.
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Economy
CBO Projects $33.6 Trillion in Federal Health Insurance Subsidies From 2026–2036
CBO and JCT estimate federal health-insurance subsidies will total $33.6 trillion from 2026–2036, rising from 7.4% to 8.4% of GDP.
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Economy
ECB holds key rates steady at 2.25%–2.65%, cites energy-price uncertainty
The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged on July 23, citing volatile energy prices and a data‑dependent approach to returning inflation to 2%.
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Economy
Euro-area firms report sharp rise in bank borrowing costs in Q2 2026; SMEs face tighter access
ECB survey: net 42% of euro-area firms saw bank loan rates rise in Q2 2026; overall availability steady but SMEs report worsened access.
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Economy
BIS working paper says sovereign‑bank “doom loop” has widened to include nonbank financial institutions
A BIS working paper finds the classic sovereign‑bank “doom loop” has widened into a sovereign‑bank‑NBFI nexus, raising new risks from leveraged nonbanks.
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Economy
India-UK trade and social-security pacts enter into force, activating tariff cuts and posting rules
India and the UK put trade and social-security agreements into force on July 15, delivering tariff-free access for most Indian goods and easing cross-border postings.
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Economy
U.S. Consumer Prices Fall 0.4% in June as Gasoline Plunge Triggers Largest Monthly Drop Since 2020
Gasoline prices plunged in June, pulling headline CPI down 0.4% month-over-month; year-over-year CPI remains up 3.5% and core CPI was flat.