Bolivia Prepares for Crucial Election Amid Economic and Political Turmoil

On August 17, 2025, Bolivia will hold a general election to select a new president, vice president, and all legislative seats, including 36 senators and 130 deputies. This election occurs amid significant economic challenges and political divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party.

The MAS party, which has dominated Bolivian politics for nearly two decades, is experiencing internal strife. President Luis Arce has declined to seek re-election, and former President Evo Morales is barred from running due to legal restrictions. Morales has called for a boycott of the election, urging supporters to cast null or invalid votes as a form of protest.

Leading candidates include Samuel Doria Medina, a center-right businessman advocating for privatization and subsidy cuts, and Jorge Quiroga, a conservative ex-president promoting free trade and property rights. Left-wing candidates, such as Andrónico Rodríguez, are trailing in the polls.

Bolivia is facing its most severe economic crisis in decades, marked by soaring inflation, fuel shortages, and dwindling foreign reserves. Inflation has surged to 24%, the highest in over 30 years, while foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to less than $2 billion, forcing the government to impose capital controls and a de facto dollarization. The country's $13.3 billion external debt includes $1.8 billion in hard-currency bonds, much of it maturing in the next three years. Debt service now competes directly with funding for fuel and food imports.

The election's outcome may also impact Bolivia's lithium sector, which has been hindered by political gridlock and regulatory uncertainty. Investors hope a political shift will unlock the world's largest untapped lithium reserves. However, Bolivia is facing mounting public backlash over contracts signed with Chinese and Russian companies to exploit its vast lithium reserves, with community groups arguing the agreements offer no real benefits to locals. The controversy led the Bolivian Chamber of Deputies to suspend parliamentary discussions on the deals in February, pending a thorough information-sharing process with civil society.

The election is taking place amid widespread public dissatisfaction, especially among the youth, who represent 40% of the electorate. Many young voters feel disillusioned with the available candidates, perceiving them as representatives of the past without innovative proposals. This disconnect has led to an increase in blank votes, particularly among women.

A new voting system has been implemented to prevent past fraud, featuring photographed tally sheets and international observers to ensure transparency. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff is scheduled for October 19, 2025.

The election's outcome could signal a shift in Bolivia's political direction after nearly two decades of MAS dominance. Economic policies of the new administration will be crucial in addressing the current crisis. Decisions regarding the lithium industry could have long-term impacts on Bolivia's economic development and position in the global market.