UNFCCC Report Highlights Gap in Emission Reduction Efforts Ahead of COP30

On October 28, 2025, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released its latest synthesis report, evaluating the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement. The report assesses 64 new or updated NDCs submitted between January 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, representing approximately 30% of global emissions in 2019.

The findings indicate that if these pledges are fully implemented, global greenhouse gas emissions could decline by about 10% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. However, this projected reduction falls significantly short of the nearly 60% decrease required to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement.

The report also highlights that major emitters, including China and the European Union, have yet to submit their updated NDCs, which could influence future projections.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement, representing each country's commitment to reduce national emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Countries are required to submit updated NDCs every five years, with each successive NDC expected to be more ambitious than the previous one.

The projected 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 underscores the significant gap between current commitments and the reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. This shortfall highlights the urgency for countries to enhance their NDCs and implement more aggressive climate actions.

The report notes that major emitters, including China and the European Union, have yet to submit their updated NDCs. Their forthcoming commitments could substantially influence future projections and the global trajectory toward emission reductions.

The inclusion of adaptation measures in a majority of NDCs reflects a growing recognition of the need to build resilience against climate impacts. However, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on adequate financing, implementation, and integration into broader development plans.

André Corrêa do Lago, COP30 President Designate, emphasized the need for accelerated implementation and ambitious international cooperation, stating that COP30 must respond to climate urgency through solidarity and enhanced action.

The UNFCCC's 2025 synthesis report serves as a critical reminder of the urgent need for enhanced global climate action. As the world approaches COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the onus is on all nations, particularly major emitters, to submit more ambitious NDCs and implement effective strategies to bridge the gap between current commitments and the necessary reductions to meet the Paris Agreement's targets.