Intel shares hit four-year high as investors brace for pivotal earnings test

Intel Corp. shares surged Wednesday to their highest level in roughly four years as investors piled into the chipmaker ahead of a closely watched earnings report that will test whether its long-promised turnaround is finally taking hold.

The stock rose about 10% intraday to more than $54—its strongest level since January 2022 and a new 52-week high. Turnover topped 190 million shares, far above Intel’s typical daily volume, putting the company among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500.

Earnings report puts turnaround narrative on trial

The rally comes one day before Intel is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after U.S. markets close on Thursday. The company plans to hold a conference call with analysts at 5 p.m. Eastern.

At stake is more than a quarter’s worth of numbers. The run-up reflects renewed optimism that the Silicon Valley pioneer can carve out a meaningful role in the artificial intelligence boom and reemerge as a competitive chip manufacturer, backed by unprecedented U.S. government support and deep-pocketed partners. It also sets a high bar: expectations have risen much faster than earnings.

Intel in October forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion, with adjusted earnings of 8 cents a share. Analysts, on average, expect closer to 4 cents a share, down from 13 cents in the same period a year earlier, and see 2025 as a trough year for profits.

Yet the stock has more than doubled over the past 12 months and climbed roughly 80% in 2025, outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. By some estimates, Intel now trades at well over 100 times projected earnings—a rich multiple for a company that only recently emerged from steep losses.

“The near-term dynamic’s set up very well,” said Ryuta Makino, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, in an interview published earlier this week. “It’s the most optimistic, I think, people have felt about the company in a long time.”

Options and upgrades fuel the momentum

Options markets underscore how pivotal Thursday’s report has become. Contracts tied to Intel shares are pricing in a one-day move of roughly 8% in either direction following the release, nearly double the average swing seen over the past four quarters.

Part of the momentum reflects a flurry of analyst upgrades that have chipped away at the skepticism that surrounded Intel after it fell behind rivals in product performance and manufacturing technology.

• Seaport Research Partners raised Intel to buy from neutral and set a $65 price target, arguing its coming Panther Lake PC processors and 18A manufacturing process could help it regain share in 2026.
• HSBC moved from reduce to hold and lifted its target to around $50.
• Citigroup upgraded Intel from sell to neutral, more than doubling its target from $29 to $50.

Even so, many on Wall Street remain unconvinced. Market tracking services show a majority of analysts rate the stock at some variation of hold or sell, with an average price target in the low $40s—implying downside from current levels. Wedbush Securities has kept a neutral stance with a $30 target, warning the recent run may have gotten ahead of fundamentals.

A bruising period—and a new CEO

The shift in sentiment follows one of the most punishing stretches in Intel’s history. The company lost process leadership to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., saw server and PC chip market share erode amid competition from Advanced Micro Devices and others, and posted a net loss of about $18.8 billion in 2024.

Intel’s chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, who took over in 2025 after leading electronic-design software maker Cadence Design Systems and building a career as a venture capitalist, has sought to reassure investors that the worst is past. In an October earnings statement, he said third-quarter results showed “improved execution and steady progress against our strategic priorities,” adding that “AI is accelerating demand for compute and creating attractive opportunities across our portfolio.”

Intel has cut costs, streamlined operations and reshaped its portfolio. It sold a majority stake in its Altera programmable chip unit last year, raised cash through asset sales, and reduced research and administrative expenses by nearly a fifth year over year in the third quarter. That quarter, Intel reported revenue of $13.7 billion, up 3% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of 23 cents a share. Its non-GAAP gross margin rebounded to 40% after plunging to the high teens during the downturn.

Foundry ambitions lean on Washington—and partners

Intel is pursuing one of the industry’s most ambitious transformations: becoming a contract manufacturer for other chip designers while continuing to sell its own processors. Under its “IDM 2.0” strategy, the company is pouring more than $100 billion into new and expanded fabrication plants in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico and Oregon, aiming to compete at the most advanced process nodes by the late 2020s.

That push has drawn heavy backing from Washington. Under the CHIPS and Science Act, the U.S. Department of Commerce has agreed in principle to provide Intel with up to about $8.5 billion in direct funding and up to $11 billion in loans, along with a 25% investment tax credit on eligible manufacturing projects. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has called the package “a massive step towards ensuring America’s leadership in manufacturing for the 21st century.”

In August, the federal government went further, converting roughly $11.1 billion of grant and security program commitments into equity, taking a nonvoting stake of about 10% in Intel at a price of $20.47 a share. The move made the U.S. government the company’s single largest shareholder and underscored its role as a de facto national champion in advanced chips, even as officials stressed the stake does not confer control.

Intel has also attracted private-sector endorsements. Graphics chip leader Nvidia agreed last year to invest $5 billion in Intel stock as part of a multi-generation collaboration on custom data center and PC products combining Intel processors with Nvidia AI platforms. SoftBank Group committed another $2 billion, calling Intel critical to expanding domestic manufacturing capacity.

Competitive pressure remains intense

Despite the political and financial support, Intel faces formidable competitive realities. TSMC still commands roughly 70% of the global pure-play foundry market, particularly at cutting-edge nodes. Intel’s foundry business remains in the red and has yet to break into the top tier of contract chipmakers by revenue. Analysts say Intel’s 18A process—expected to underpin upcoming Panther Lake PC chips and next-generation Xeon server processors—will be a key proof point for whether it can close the gap.

In AI, Nvidia continues to dominate the lucrative market for data center accelerators, with AMD making inroads. Intel is betting that demand for general-purpose CPUs that orchestrate AI workloads—along with high-volume products such as so-called AI PCs and edge inference chips—will give it a meaningful role in the ecosystem even without leading in GPUs. Company executives and some analysts have said Intel is already close to selling out its 2026 server CPU capacity, with expectations for higher average selling prices.

What investors will watch on Thursday

Thursday’s earnings call is expected to focus on whether those claims are translating into orders, margins and cash flow. Investors will also be watching for updates on:

• foundry customer wins and the pace of commercialization,
• progress at new fabrication sites,
• the trajectory of foundry losses,
• capital spending plans as Intel juggles multibillion-dollar projects while trying to repair its balance sheet.

After Wednesday’s run, Intel heads into its report with the stock at a level it has not seen since before its downturn—buoyed by AI enthusiasm and government backing but still working to prove that its turnaround is more than a story. The next set of numbers, and the outlook for 2026 and beyond, will help determine whether investors keep treating the company as a reborn contender or decide the rebound has moved too far, too fast.