AI to Revolutionize Global Trade, Boost GDP by 13% by 2040: WTO Report

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly reshape global trade, with projections indicating a potential increase of up to 37% in trade volumes and a 13% boost in global GDP by 2040, according to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) 2025 World Trade Report released on September 17. The report emphasizes that these gains hinge on the adoption of inclusive policies and investments aimed at bridging the digital divide and ensuring equitable access to AI technologies.

The WTO's comprehensive analysis highlights AI's capacity to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity through innovations in logistics, compliance, and communication. For instance, AI-powered translation tools could enable small producers in low-income countries to compete more effectively in international markets, potentially increasing their exports by up to 11%, provided there is improved digital infrastructure.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala underscored the transformative potential of AI, stating, "AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven." She emphasized the need for a balanced approach, noting, "With the right mix of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort."

The report also addresses the challenges posed by AI integration, particularly the risk of exacerbating existing social and economic inequalities. It calls for robust education, retraining, and social support systems to mitigate potential job displacement resulting from AI adoption. Additionally, the WTO highlights the importance of predictable trade rules and reduced tariffs on AI-critical raw materials, such as semiconductors, to facilitate widespread benefits.

The number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has increased significantly, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. This trend underscores the need for international cooperation to ensure that AI-driven growth is inclusive and beneficial for all economies.

The WTO's 2025 World Trade Report serves as a call to action for policymakers worldwide to implement inclusive policies and investments that harness AI's potential while addressing its challenges. By fostering international cooperation and ensuring equitable access to AI technologies, the global community can work towards a future where AI contributes to sustainable and inclusive economic growth.