Economy
CBO Projects $33.6 Trillion in Federal Health Insurance Subsidies From 2026–2036
CBO and JCT estimate federal health-insurance subsidies will total $33.6 trillion from 2026–2036, rising from 7.4% to 8.4% of GDP.
Finance
Markets, economy, and industry.
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Economy
ECB holds key rates steady at 2.25%–2.65%, cites energy-price uncertainty
The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged on July 23, citing volatile energy prices and a data‑dependent approach to returning inflation to 2%.
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Economy
Euro-area firms report sharp rise in bank borrowing costs in Q2 2026; SMEs face tighter access
ECB survey: net 42% of euro-area firms saw bank loan rates rise in Q2 2026; overall availability steady but SMEs report worsened access.
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Economy
BIS working paper says sovereign‑bank “doom loop” has widened to include nonbank financial institutions
A BIS working paper finds the classic sovereign‑bank “doom loop” has widened into a sovereign‑bank‑NBFI nexus, raising new risks from leveraged nonbanks.
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Economy
India-UK trade and social-security pacts enter into force, activating tariff cuts and posting rules
India and the UK put trade and social-security agreements into force on July 15, delivering tariff-free access for most Indian goods and easing cross-border postings.
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Economy
U.S. Consumer Prices Fall 0.4% in June as Gasoline Plunge Triggers Largest Monthly Drop Since 2020
Gasoline prices plunged in June, pulling headline CPI down 0.4% month-over-month; year-over-year CPI remains up 3.5% and core CPI was flat.
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Economy
India's Retail Inflation Rises to 4.38% in June as Food Prices Accelerate
India’s CPI inflation rose to 4.38% in June from 3.93% in May as food prices climbed; rural inflation outpaced urban, the national statistics office said.
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Economy
Fed Minutes Show Officials Weigh Another Rate Hike and Signal Firmer Inflation Focus
June Fed minutes show officials viewed inflation as too high, debated removing easing language and some said another rate hike could be warranted.
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Economy
Bank of Canada staff paper finds supply shocks drove majority of Canada's post‑pandemic inflation
A Bank of Canada staff paper finds supply-side pressures, not demand, accounted for the larger share of Canada’s post-pandemic inflation surge.
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Economy
ECB's Schnabel warns persistent oil and gas shock raises odds of further euro-area rate hikes
At the Petersberger Sommerdialog, ECB's Isabel Schnabel warned prolonged oil and gas pressures raise euro-area inflation risks and bolster the case for more rate hikes.
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Economy
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5–3.75% in Unanimous Vote at Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate at 3.5–3.75% in a 12-0 vote at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, citing persistent inflation and energy-related supply shocks.
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Economy
Illinois Lawmakers Approve 0.2% Digital-Asset Tax in FY2027 Budget
Illinois lawmakers approved a 0.2% tax on certain digital-asset activity in the FY2027 budget; brokers would collect, register and remit if signed into law.
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Economy
Bank of Japan Raises Main Short-Term Policy Rate to 1.0%, Signals More Hikes
The BOJ raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate to around 1.0% in a 7-1 vote and said it may continue raising rates as inflation nears 2%.
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Economy
ECB reports 2025 portfolio emissions fell as bond holdings shrank; adds new climate metrics
The ECB's 2025 climate disclosures show portfolio-linked emissions fell mainly due to bond portfolio run-off; new inflation-adjusted and scope-3 metrics were added.
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Economy
GAO Warns of ‘Unsustainable Fiscal Path’ as U.S. Debt Nears Postwar Highs; Social Security and Medicare Funding at Risk
GAO's June 11 report says U.S. debt could hit 106% of GDP by 2029 and 251% by 2056; Social Security and Medicare trust funds face depletion in 2032–33.
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Economy
ECB Raises Key Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, Cites Middle East War and Higher Energy Prices
The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, citing Middle East conflict and higher energy-price assumptions; new rates take effect June 17.
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Economy
U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.5% in May; Annual Inflation Accelerates to 4.2% Ahead of Fed Meeting
CPI rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-over-year as gasoline and shelter costs pushed inflation higher just before the Fed's June meeting.
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Economy
U.S. Adds 172,000 Jobs in May; Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with strong revisions to March–April, leaving unemployment at 4.3% and complicating the Fed’s June policy outlook.
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Economy
Trump Revises U.S. Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum and Copper; Changes Take Effect June 8, 2026
Trump issued a proclamation refining Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper — lowering domestic-content thresholds and adjusting rates; changes take effect June 8, 2026.
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Economy
ECB's Isabel Schnabel Warns Stablecoins Could Recreate Money-Market Fund Risks
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned in Seoul that stablecoins can mirror money-market fund vulnerabilities and urged tighter rules and settlement in central bank money.